Prepared by the Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group
Colorado School of Public Health: Andrea Buchwald, Elizabeth Carlton, Debashis Ghosh, Irina Kasarskis, Jonathan Samet, Laura Timm, Emily Wu; University of Colorado School of Medicine: Kathryn Colborn; University of Colorado-Boulder Department of Applied Mathematics: Sabina Altus, David Bortz; University of Colorado-Denver: jimi adams; Colorado State University: Jude Bayham

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This report is generated based on hospitalization data through 02/22/2021. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, estimates of transmission control and the effective reproductive number represent the spread of infections through approximately 02/09/2021.

The Southwest LPHA region includes Archuleta, Dolores, La Plata, Montezuma and San Juan counties.

Southwest Region
Are infections increasing or decreasing?
How many people are infectious?
How many people have been infected to date?
Re Infections areโ€ฆ Prevalence per 100,000 People infectious Cumulative Infections to Date Proportion of population infected to date
0.9 Decreasing 376 1 in 266 11,100 10.8
Table 1. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, the estimated effective reproductive number (Re) reflects the spread of infections approximately two weeks prior to the data of the last observed hospitalization.

Southwest Region
County Daily Average Number of Cases in the past 7 days per 100,000 population
Archuleta 4.0
Dolores 14.0
La Plata 9.8
Montezuma 10.2
San Juan 0.0

Table 2. Case counts are from the NY Times and reflect cases reported to CDPHE from 02/16/2021 - 02/22/2021. Cases are grouped based on the date they are reported. Population data are 2020 estimates from the Colorado Demography Office. These estimates may not represent the full number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Colorado during this time period.

Figure 5. Daily hours away from home (SafeGraph) is averaged across census block groups within the region and across the state of Colorado. The faint lines show the daily data, and the thick lines represent a smoothed average over time. The ribbon below the time away from home displays the population-weighted mean daily temperature across the state from gridMET.