Prepared by the Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group
Colorado School of Public Health: Andrea Buchwald, Elizabeth Carlton, Debashis Ghosh, Irina Kasarskis, Jonathan Samet, Emily Wu; University of Colorado School of Medicine: Kathryn Colborn; University of Colorado-Boulder Department of Applied Mathematics: Sabina Altus, David Bortz; Colorado State University: Jude Bayham

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Effective reproductive number (Re) reflects hospitalization data through 11/08/2021. In regions with smaller populations, reported cases are also used to generate these estimates. The prevalence of infections and percent of the population infected is estimated for 11/01/2021. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, estimates of transmission control and the effective reproductive number represent the spread of infections through approximately 10/26/2021.

The Southwest LPHA region includes Archuleta, Dolores, La Plata, Montezuma and San Juan counties.

Southwest Region
Are infections increasing or decreasing?
How many people are infectious?
Re Infections areโ€ฆ Prevalence per 100,000 People infectious Percent of Population Estimated Immune
0.7 Decreasing 827 1 in 121 48.7
Table 1. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, the estimated effective reproductive number (Re) reflects the spread of infections approximately two weeks prior to the data of the last observed hospitalization.

Southwest Region
County Daily Average Number of Cases in the past 7 days per 100,000 population
Archuleta 75.6
Dolores 28.1
La Plata 54.9
Montezuma 83.6
San Juan 37.2

Table 2. Case counts are from the NY Times and reflect cases reported to CDPHE from 11/02/2021 - 11/08/2021. Cases are grouped based on the date they are reported. Population data are 2020 estimates from the Colorado Demography Office. These estimates may not represent the full number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Colorado during this time period.