Prepared by the Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group
Colorado School of Public Health: Andrea Buchwald, Elizabeth Carlton, Debashis Ghosh, Irina Kasarskis, Jonathan Samet, Emily Wu; University of Colorado School of Medicine: Kathryn Colborn; University of Colorado-Boulder Department of Applied Mathematics: Sabina Altus, David Bortz; Colorado State University: Jude Bayham

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Effective reproductive number (Re) reflects hospitalization data through 09/13/2021. In regions with smaller populations, reported cases are also used to generate these estimates. The prevalence of infections and percent of the population infected is estimated for 09/06/2021. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, estimates of transmission control and the effective reproductive number represent the spread of infections through approximately 08/31/2021.

The Northwest LPHA region includes Jackson, Mesa, Moffat, Rio Blanco and Routt counties.

Northwest Region
Are infections increasing or decreasing?
How many people are infectious?
Re Infections areโ€ฆ Prevalence per 100,000 People infectious Percent of Population Estimated Immune
1.1 Increasing 1,179 1 in 85 67.5
Table 1. Due to lags between infection and hospitalization, the estimated effective reproductive number (Re) reflects the spread of infections approximately two weeks prior to the data of the last observed hospitalization.

Northwest Region
County Daily Average Number of Cases in the past 7 days per 100,000 population
Jackson 20.8
Mesa 38.9
Moffat 117.4
Rio Blanco 70.2
Routt 77.4

Table 2. Case counts are from the NY Times and reflect cases reported to CDPHE from 09/07/2021 - 09/13/2021. Cases are grouped based on the date they are reported. Population data are 2020 estimates from the Colorado Demography Office. These estimates may not represent the full number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Colorado during this time period.